FAFSA Filing Doesn’t Drive Enrollment: Why Institutions Must Look Beyond Transactional Milestones
Higher education leaders are facing unprecedented uncertainty in predicting student enrollment. Application volumes are up nationwide, FAFSA data has been delayed and disrupted, and traditional indicators of yield are no longer as reliable as they once were. In this environment, it’s natural to look at transactional milestones—submitted applications, campus visits, FAFSA filers, deposits—as markers of enrollment intent.
But SightLine’s analysis, reinforced by findings from the upcoming 2025 MeetYourClass prospective student survey report, points to a critical truth that these transactional steps signal interest, but they do not drive enrollment. Enrollment behavior is shaped long before these milestones and long after.
To accurately predict yield and intervene early, institutions must focus on student behavior patterns and engagement signals rather than solely on whether a form has been completed.
Applications and FAFSAs Are Signals, Not Enrollment Drivers
Nationally, first-year applications rose another 8% in 2025, and students on the Common App are applying to nearly 7 institutions on average. SightLine’s work and MeetYourClass survey data show similar trends: students applied to a median of 5 institutions, and those enrolling at private institutions applied to even more with a median of 8.
This means institutions, especially privates, are competing within larger cross-app pools, making applications a weaker predictor of actual enrollment than ever.
FAFSA filing tells a slightly clearer story. Among college-bound students in the MeetYourClass survey, 83% filed a FAFSA, and 90% of first-generation students completed one. These rates far exceed national filing data because the national numbers include students who never intended to enroll in a higher education institution at all.
But even here, the takeaway isn’t that institutions should push FAFSA filing harder. FAFSA filing correlates with intent but it does not create intent. It’s evidence of commitment from students who were already leaning toward college, not a tool that causes them to enroll.
Why Focusing on FAFSA Completion Alone Misses the Point
Many institutions respond to shifting FAFSA timelines by doubling down on FAFSA outreach. While well-intentioned, this strategy often becomes overly transactional.
Here’s why that approach falls short:
Filing the FAFSA doesn't build commitment—it’s a bureaucratic task, not an emotional or relational milestone.
A completed FAFSA may not indicate affinity—students may file to keep options open, not because they’re choosing you.
FAFSA outreach can crowd out relationship-building when it becomes the only proactive communication students receive.
Students who file the FAFSA elsewhere aren’t necessarily enrolling elsewhere—but students who stop showing behavioral engagement often are.
Simply increasing FAFSA completion at your institution does not increase yield. Understanding and shaping the student’s experience does.
The Opportunity: Build Relationships, Not Checklists
SightLine’s recommendation is clear: Stop treating FAFSA completion and other forms as the key levers of enrollment. Start designing interactions that build the confidence and clarity students actually need to choose your institution.
What To Do Instead
1. Track and respond to behavior, not just transactions.
Look for repeat engagement, return visits, community-building actions, and academic exploration—these are far more predictive and are indicators of what messaging resonates with individual students or what is important to them as they make their enrollment decision.
2. Provide human-centered, relationship-driven support.
Students enroll when they feel understood, supported, and connected—not because they completed a government form.
3. Build belonging early.
Students who begin forming peer connections (whether through social platforms, student groups, or other communities) show higher commitment and lower melt.
4. Create financial clarity, not just financial compliance.
Go beyond FAFSA reminders. Help students understand net price, aid packages, payment expectations, and long-term outcomes.
5. Use FAFSA data to segment, not define your outreach.
FAFSA filing should guide your engagement strategy, not dictate it.
The Bottom Line
Applications and FAFSA filings matter—but they are indicators, not drivers. True enrollment intent emerges through interaction, inquiry, relationship-building, and belonging.
By shifting from transactional checklists to behavioral insight and student-centered engagement, institutions can more accurately predict individual student outcomes, reduce uncertainty, and create a decision process where students feel supported, not processed.
SightLine’s mission in collaboration with MeetYourClass is to help institutions make this shift of transforming scattered signals into actionable insight and improving enrollment outcomes through data, empathy, and a smarter strategy.
